VÖRÖS' BASEBALL ANALYSIS PAGE

2001 PLAYER PROJECTIONS

Philadelphia Phillies

Starters	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Lieberthal, Mike	394	58	111	24	2	17	64	38	58	2	2	0.282	0.347	0.485
Burrell, Pat	565	86	146	33	3	23	86	83	165	2	2	0.258	0.356	0.450
Anderson, Marlon	607	81	160	34	7	10	65	41	87	17	6	0.264	0.314	0.394
Rolen, Scott	570	104	164	38	4	33	108	78	123	11	5	0.287	0.376	0.542
Rollins, Jimmy	601	82	152	31	6	11	63	47	79	22	7	0.253	0.311	0.378
Lee, Travis	564	85	141	30	3	15	70	84	111	13	6	0.250	0.350	0.393
Glanville, Doug	607	86	173	31	5	9	66	41	76	25	8	0.285	0.333	0.400
Abreu, Bobby	548	112	168	35	7	23	88	100	115	24	9	0.306	0.416	0.521

Reserves	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Bennett, Gary	392	50	101	22	1	11	51	40	68	1	1	0.258	0.329	0.406
Jordan, Kevin	610	67	159	33	4	9	64	38	73	1	1	0.262	0.308	0.372
Perez, Tomas	610	67	146	29	4	10	62	38	122	5	3	0.239	0.287	0.351
Ducey, Rob	561	83	133	29	3	19	74	87	156	5	3	0.237	0.342	0.403
Hunter, Brian L.	597	84	146	26	4	5	51	51	104	37	9	0.245	0.307	0.328
Hunter, Brian R.	574	81	136	29	3	23	81	74	138	4	3	0.237	0.326	0.414

Prospects	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Taylor, Reggie	622	80	149	25	6	14	66	26	137	26	7	0.239	0.273	0.367
Valent, Eric	587	80	141	27	4	24	82	61	140	3	2	0.240	0.314	0.422
Punto, Nick	587	79	140	26	4	8	55	61	116	22	7	0.239	0.314	0.341
Michaels, Jason	611	72	151	34	4	14	71	37	151	6	3	0.246	0.292	0.383

Longshots	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Alvarez, Clemente	399	43	89	19	2	7	39	33	97	3	2	0.223	0.284	0.331
Turner, Chris	387	49	92	18	1	8	42	45	95	3	2	0.239	0.322	0.357
Cedeno, Domingo	596	72	141	32	3	13	67	52	153	6	4	0.237	0.301	0.366
Forbes, P.J.	606	64	149	34	2	4	55	42	82	7	4	0.246	0.298	0.331
Newhan, David	587	74	129	24	2	14	63	61	162	13	6	0.220	0.296	0.341
Orie, Kevin	585	76	145	35	3	16	74	63	108	4	3	0.248	0.323	0.399
Ward, Turner	575	82	151	31	4	15	70	73	87	8	4	0.262	0.348	0.404
Woods, Ken	608	72	163	31	4	4	56	40	76	13	6	0.268	0.316	0.354
Schall, Gene	596	74	145	32	2	21	82	52	163	1	1	0.244	0.307	0.408

Notes:

A comeback from Travis Lee could help a suddenly young Phillies lineup immensely.
I consider Jimmy Rollins to be one of the better prospects around. All he needs is for his team and his team's fans to show a little patience with him while he's still young and improving, and the Phillies should have a very nice player. His abilities look an awful like those of Edgar Renteria.
The Phillies have cornered the market on Brian Hunters.
I'm constantly working on my system trying to improve some weaknesses and add some strengths (see next comment). This offseason's goal was to fix one glaring weakness in the system and I've certainly improved that area a lot now (though it still needs work). However there were more that I tried to work in and just couldn't get it done in time so it will have to wait for next year (which isn't to say the system doesn't "work." The system I used is the best one available to me. The information I had that was not included, while apparently accurate as far as I can tell, was very difficult to work into the system in a way that would not decrease it's accuracy). I'm mentioning this here because Reggie Taylor looks like the prototype player who would be helped by this info being included in the projections. Left handed hitters, with speed who strike out a fair amount and have a touch of power concentrate a bunch of "pluses" that I wasn't able to work in. The reason is that it was unclear how these "pluses" worked, when in particular they were especially relevant and to what extent it helped what statistics. But there does appear to be advantages there. This is useful information because it puts a bit more weight on the "tools" that scouts use to rate players (which while they call them five, really are only three: size, speed and agility). That said, in Taylor you have a player whose best OPS ever was a .753 he posted last year with a .310 OBP. Taylor may be a good bit better than you'd normally expect from a minor leaguer with his stats, but he's gonna have to be a lot better than currently projected to be any good.
While we're on the subject of difficult projections, the projection for Johnny Estrada has been omitted. In Estrada's projection, the two biggest weaknesses still remaining (dealing with one year of data and unusual strikeout totals) have been abnormally concentrated leading to a projection that I have no confidence in providing to you as accurate. For a player unlikely to see much big league time this year, I felt it was best leaving him alone. These weaknesses are usually harmless, and at times work as strengths of the system, but in this case it lead to a projection I wasn't comfortable with...
In better news, I'm extremely comfortable with the projection for Eric Valent, and think that if Lee falters, you could see him seize the leftfield job. A good minor leaguer to watch closely this year.

Return to 2001 Projection Index

Vörös McCracken
voros@daruma.co.jp
February 25, 2001